Micron Technology — Revenue Mix Through the AI Cycle

What the mix is telling you

DRAM dominance is widening. DRAM was ~67-72% of revenue through FY20; it crossed 75% in FY24 and is tracking ~85%+ in FY26 as HBM consumes incremental wafer capacity. NAND is being structurally de-prioritised — Micron's capex is going to DRAM/HBM.

The datacenter inversion. Pre-2023, mobile + PC/client were ~50% of revenue and datacenter ~30%. In FY26, datacenter is on track for ~65-70% of revenue. This is the mix shift that supports a re-rate from cyclical-multiple (5-8× P/E peak earnings) to platform-multiple (15-20× P/E).

HBM is the swing factor. From ~$0 in FY23 → ~$1B FY24 → ~$8B FY25 → likely $30-40B+ in FY26. At ~60% gross margin on HBM vs ~25% on commodity DRAM, HBM is doing the heavy lifting on the gross-margin step-up to ~81% guided for Q3 FY26.

What to watch in the mix

• HBM share gain — Micron at ~24% (vs SK Hynix 43%, Samsung 33%). Every 5pp share gain ≈ ~$8-10B incremental annual revenue at current HBM TAM.
• NAND inflection — has been the drag on consolidated margins. Watch for Micron to divest, JV, or de-emphasise NAND further; would be net-positive for the multiple.
• Mobile/PC mix bottom — these are now structurally lower-margin and lower-growth. If they fall below 25% of revenue, the company is effectively a pure-play datacenter memory name.
• HBM4 ramp (Q2 CY26) — aligned with NVIDIA Vera Rubin. Higher ASP and margin than HBM3E; the FY27 mix story.